Saturday, May 17, 2008

Embracing or Appeasing w/ Ahmadinejad

Two important points that are not being mentioned in all of the rhetorics about Obama embracing and now appeasing with the 'Hitler du jour' Ahmadinejad is that first he is not the commander in chief or as the Iranian regime refers to it as the Supreme Leader (title held by Khamenei). More importantly even if he does have a significant role in Iranian foreign policies then if in fact Obama is elected and takes office, only 4 months later Iran will have its own presidential (s)election. Where given all the economic and social turmoils there and more importantly the strife among the insiders the odds of Ahmadinejad getting re-elected is very low. Thus he may not even be around for this supposed embracement!

My guess would be that in 2009 Iranians will not only not be boycotting but instead may turnout heavily for the presidential (s)elections as both they and the insiders running the show will be motivated by the possibility of improving relations with a U.S. administration that is led by someone who is not so fixated in attacking them -- like Obama. So when it is all said and done if Obama is elected his visit with an Iranian president in mid to late 2009 will be with a more pragmatic person like Larijani.

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